China's Pharma Plan to 2030 Runs at Two Speeds: What It Means for Europe and for Chinese Innovators
On 18 September, Beijing published its industrial blueprint for pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Read against the results of the previous plan, it tells European companies and Chinese innovators two different but complementary things.
What was published
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Natural Resources and seven other departments jointly issued the pharmaceutical industry development plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and MIIT announced it on 18 September. It sets out 25 priority tasks across eight areas. Its 10 targets are officially described as indicative ("预期性") rather than binding. In practice, they signal where policy and capital will be steered.
The headline targets for China Pharma 2030 plan:
Combined revenue of at least ¥3.5 trillion for pharmaceutical manufacturers above the statistical threshold of ¥20 million in annual sales (roughly US$520bn).
At least 20% average annual growth for the innovative-drug sector, and a Chinese share of no less than 25% of the world's first-in-class drugs.
At least five Chinese drugs with global sales above US$1bn a year, and 50 companies with revenue above ¥10bn.
Average R&D intensity above 10% at listed pharmaceutical companies, and 20 industrial parks each producing at least ¥100bn a year.
At least 200 innovative medical devices brought to market.
Why the scorecard changed
The previous plan targeted revenue and profit growth of at least 8% a year, and a rise in the sector's share of industrial value added to about 5%. By MIIT's own review, value added grew 4.1% a year and its share stayed around 3.6%. However, 230 innovative drugs and 292 innovative medical devices reached the market.
The scale targets were missed, while innovation over-delivered. The new plan draws the lesson and puts its growth ambition into innovation rather than overall size.
Two speeds
In 2025, above-scale pharmaceutical manufacturers generated ¥2.96 trillion in revenue, 0.6% less than the year before. Reaching ¥3.5 trillion by 2030 therefore needs only about 3.4% growth a year (our calculation). The innovative-drug industry, by contrast, is asked to grow at 20% or more.
The split is already visible in the data. Biologics grew revenue by 7.5% in 2025, while APIs, chemical formulations and both categories of traditional Chinese medicine saw revenue and profit fall. 29.1% of above-scale manufacturers were loss-making. Volume-based procurement keeps pressure on mature products.
The plan doesn't reverse that pressure; it points growth elsewhere.
The first-in-class question
The most striking target — 25% of the world's first-in-class drugs — needs careful reading. Boston Consulting Group's April 2026 report used a broad definition: the globally fastest programme for a given target and modality. On that basis, China originated 34% of new potential first-in-class molecules in 2025, up from 16% in 2020.
On a strict definition, meaning molecules aimed at targets never tested in the clinic, China counted 11 new ones in 2025, eight of them from novel modalities.
The target is therefore either close to met or a genuine leap. How the implementing rules count "first-in-class" will decide which.
What it means for European companies
The door into China stays open. Among the plan's measures is faster market entry for clinically urgent imported drugs and devices, together with a push to bring their production into China. The plan also aims to attract foreign pharmaceutical companies through China's large domestic market and the policy advantages of the pilot free-trade zones, Hainan Free Trade Port and the Greater Bay Area.
European multinationals are still committing capital. AstraZeneca announced a US$2.5bn investment plan and opened its sixth global strategic R&D centre in Beijing, and Sanofi launched its €1bn insulin project in Beijing.
The bar for mature products keeps rising. The plan introduces an action to efficiently replace drugs whose patents have expired. This comes on top of a procurement system that already compresses prices. KPMG noted in 2025 that multinationals were divesting mature China portfolios in response to volume-based procurement. For example, UCB sold its mature neurology and allergy business in China in 2024, in a deal KPMG lists at US$680m.
For medtech, the domestic field is substantial. 292 innovative devices launched under the last plan, and the new one targets at least 200 more.
China is now a partner market as much as a sales market. According to BCG, China originated 31% of global business-development deals in 2025, up from 17% in 2020 and broadly level with the US. Co-development accounted for nearly 40% of licensing deals in 2023–2025. The plan encourages Chinese firms to join global innovation networks through joint R&D and co-commercialisation.
Our read is that European companies should expect Chinese counterparts to seek shared development and commercial roles, not only outright licences.
What it means for Chinese innovators heading to Europe
The plan supports international multicentre clinical trials, overseas registration, and R&D centres, manufacturing bases and sales networks abroad. It also calls for deeper regulatory cooperation and closer alignment between Chinese and international standards.
The official diagnosis is candid. Li Yan, a deputy head of industrial economy research at the State Council's Development Research Center, notes that Chinese companies still go global mainly by out-licensing assets. Their ability to run global multicentre trials, secure overseas registrations and build commercial channels remains comparatively weak. BCG reaches the same conclusion: local innovators need global clinical, operational and commercial capabilities to move beyond asset out-licensing.
Licensing will remain the right route for many assets, and momentum is strong. Overseas licensing deals for Chinese innovative drugs have exceeded US$120bn in total value this year, 36% more than a year earlier. For companies that want to keep more of the value, Europe is a realistic place to build.
The practical difference with China is that one EMA approval opens the EU, but pricing and reimbursement are negotiated country by country. The UK has its own regulator, the MHRA.
Choosing the right distribution partner in each market often decides the launch.
Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area
The plan names Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area as regions expected to form world-class pharmaceutical clusters. Hong Kong, where we are based, began phase one of "primary evaluation" of new drugs on 31 March 2026, moving its own regulation towards independent review.
For companies crossing in either direction, it is a useful junction.
What to watch next
MIIT says its next steps include optimising review and approval mechanisms and improving pricing, payment and usage policies. Those implementing measures, and how "first-in-class" is counted, will show how the targets translate into market access.
Sources
MIIT briefing, reported by Xinhua and Science and Technology Daily, 18 Sep 2026
Global Times and Xinhua Finance, 18 Sep 2026
21st Century Business Herald, 18 Sep 2026
China Pharmaceutical News (NBS data), Apr 2026
MIIT, 14th Five-Year Plan for the Pharmaceutical Industry
BCG, Beyond Efficiency: China's Next Leap in Biopharma Innovation, Apr 2026
KPMG China, China Life Sciences Sector Overview and Outlook, Apr 2025.
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